It feels like the season finale of a drama: TikTok, probably the most successful international app from China, faces an uncertain future. A US ban is almost sealed, and the tech world is holding its breath. But this is just the prelude to a larger showdown that extends far beyond TikTok.
The TikTok Ban – A Domino Effect
After years of relative calm, the dispute over TikTok has escalated dramatically in 2024. The clock is ticking: On January 10, 2025, the US Supreme Court will decide the fate of the app, shortly before a law comes into force on January 19. This requires the separation from ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company – or the end in the USA.
Donald Trump, just before his return to the White House, has promised to "save" TikTok. But even his influence will hardly suffice to change the course. If TikTok were actually banned, it would be a strong signal to China's entire tech industry: Your products are not welcome here.
What does this mean for apps like Temu or ambitious AI startups from China? The ban could force them to rethink – or push them out of the market entirely. At the same time, Beijing is likely to exploit the irony of the ban for propaganda: The USA, which stands for free markets, is cracking down – out of fear of Chinese innovation.
Trade wars and the search for new partners
Parallel to the tech conflict, a new trade war is brewing. Trump's plans to impose massive tariffs meet Beijing's efforts to catch up technologically—or even surpass the USA. The chip sector, in particular, is in the crossfire.
Companies like Nvidia, considered a pioneer in AI, are already restricted by export controls. But the real test begins when the tight global supply chains break apart. Companies like Apple and Tesla, which are heavily dependent on the Chinese market, could falter.
India, Vietnam and other Asian countries sense opportunities: New production sites could emerge while western companies want to reduce their dependence on China. But these countries are not safe either: Trump's protectionist policies could also affect them.
The Little Dragons: Asia's AI Startups in the Spotlight
As the world bets on generative AI, China's "Little Dragons" are growing up – startups like Moonshot, MiniMax, and Zhipu. They face dual challenges: strict regulations in their own country and U.S. restrictions on semiconductors. Their innovation will be tested in 2025.
Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son is going all out. His bet on AI could turn out to be a brilliant vision or a costly mistake. Investors are nervously watching to see if the AI hype finally delivers tangible profits – or if costs outweigh the benefits.
Taiwan: The Pressure Cooker of the Tech World
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is the heart of the global chip industry - and is under enormous pressure. China's military maneuvers around Taiwan cause unrest, while Trump accuses the island of having "stolen" the US chip industry.
Ironically, US giants like Apple and Nvidia rely on TSMC to manufacture their top products. However, the decline in business with Chinese companies could slow growth. Can TSMC maintain its dominance? 2025 will be a decisive year.
Australia, Censorship and the Battle for Social Media
Meanwhile, Australia takes a radical step: A social media ban for children under 16 comes into effect in 2025. Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia and Vietnam are watching closely – and go even further. There, governments are copying Beijing's strict internet controls, which is sharply criticized by digital rights activists.
But not only social media are in focus. The region is also targeting Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu. These regulatory initiatives could set the tone for other countries worldwide.
The stage is set: 2025 will be a key year for Asia's tech industry. Between geopolitical tensions and technological breakthroughs, companies fight for their future – and the world is watching.
